How San Francisco & Pearl River Delta Prove That MTHL Will Increase Supply Of Urban Land

China's Pearl River Delta recently became the world's largest urban area in size and population. Pearl River Delta, interestingly, is very different from other large metropolitan areas. It has mountains and low-lying plains, too. Hong Kong and Guangzhou are at the two extreme ends of Pearl River Delta and its various parts are disconnected from each other and very dissimilar, unlike other large metropolitan areas like London, New York or Tokyo.

As former World Bank researcher Alain Bertaud once pointed out, land is scarce in Hong Kong, while it is abundant in Guangzhou. There is still not enough connectivity among areas in Pearl River Delta. This is not true of San Francisco Bay, where San Francisco, San Jose and Oakland are connected to each other with a network of bridges. As San Francisco is geographically very similar to Pearl River Delta, it is possible to raise land supply in Hong Kong the same way it happened long ago across San Francisco Bay.

In major cities built on a peninsula, bridges that connect mainland to docks increase the supply of urban land. In Mumbai, for example, the Trans-Harbour Link or MTHL will connect Navi Mumbai to South Mumbai. This is important, because Navi Mumbai is one of the rare areas that offer urban extension in the city. The construction of the MTHL will begin this year.

Infrastructure in Greater Pearl River delta is expected to alleviate Hong Kong's lack of land supply. Many cross-border infrastructure projects will lower the commute times from Hong Kong to Shenzhen and Guangzhou. This will also help the integration of Hong Kong with Chinese cities like Shanghai, strengthening cross-border trade. Some experts even expect this to lower housing prices and office rents in Hong Kong. Office rents in Hong Kong are the highest in the world. Otherwise, however, do not expect this to lower office rents in Hong Kong, but to strengthen the central business districts (CBDs) in the city-state. There is not sufficient land to meet the future demand for office space in Hong Kong.

Mumbai is similar to Pearl River Delta in a way. The land masses are dispersed over a wide area. Topographical constraints lower the supply of developable land in Mumbai. Land is scarce in Mumbai, and one of the ways to make housing affordable is to connect other parts of the city to South Mumbai. The MTHL is expected to lower the commute distance from Navi Mumbai to South Mumbai from 41 kilometers to 26 kilometers. Even though the first study of the feasibility of the MTHL was done in 1962, authorities have not taken enough steps to build it yet. But the experience of San Francisco and Pearl River Delta suggests that building such a bridge is not costly, when the benefits are taken into account.